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added: 09-12-2004 19:07
JANE'S INTELLIGENCE DIGEST: Spetsnaz Deploy in Ukraine
JANE'S INTELLIGENCE DIGEST

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Spetsnaz deploy in Ukraine
Following recent JID revelations concerning Moscow's involvement in the
election crisis in Ukraine, intelligence is emerging that confirms in detail
the deployment of Russian Spetsnaz special forces (see JID 3 December 2004).
Our Ukraine correspondent reports.

Up to 500 members of Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Vityaz special forces
division in Bryansk are currently deployed at a Ukrainian Interior Ministry
(MVS) military base in Irpin, near Kiev. Two transports flew them into the
Gostomel aerodrome near Irpin between 1 and 3 am on 24 November, three days
after the hotly disputed second round of the presidential election on 21
November. A third transport flew into the military aerodrome near Vasylkiv,
Kiev on 24 November.

Although some reports suggested that outgoing President Leonid Kuchma had
requested Russian support to quell popular unrest following accusations of
election fraud, JID's Ukrainian sources stress that the use of Russian
troops against civilians was never likely to form part of the government's
strategy. In fact, divided loyalties within Ukraine's security forces
surfaced after the second round of the elections.

Members of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) have long been working secretly
with supporters of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. Between the first
and second rounds of the poll, the SBU illicitly taped mobile telephone
conversations between key figures surrounding Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych. Recordings were passed to Yushchenko following the second round
of voting and have been submitted as evidence to the Supreme Court, which
was investigating election fraud.

Ukraine's military is also predominantly pro-Yushchenko. Many officers
adopted a pro-Western position as a result of Ukraine's involvement in
NATO's Partnership for Peace programme during the last decade. Four days
after the second round of the election, the former SBU chairman and Defence
Minister Yevhen Marchuk defected to the Yushchenko camp. Given serious
questions about the loyalty of the armed forces, it would prove difficult -
if not impossible - for Kuchma to declare a state of emergency. In any case,
such a step requires parliamentary approval which will not be forthcoming.

However, the position of the Interior Ministry (MVS) is very different. The
MVS has taken up many of the functions of the Soviet-era KGB and has been
active against the opposition. Nevertheless, during the recent
demonstrations, the MVS ranks split. Police and cadets defected to the
Yushchenko camp while most special forces units and MVS internal troops have
remained loyal to Kuchma. Only in western Ukraine did the MVS Spetsnaz units
declare their loyalty to Yushchenko.

Meanwhile, Interior Ministry riot control police (Berkut) have continued to
guard the presidential administration against attempts by crowds loyal to
Yushchenko to storm the building. Plans to occupy the presidential
headquarters immediately after the second round of voting were rejected in
favour of a blockade. Protesters would first have had to break through the
unarmed 'Berkut' ranks and then through a line of armed presidential guards
who had received orders to shoot.

The deployment of the Russian Spetsnaz in Ukraine has two main objectives.
The first is to evacuate Kuchma and his immediate family if the 'Orange
revolution' turns violent. Twenty of the 500 Russian Spetsnaz form Kuchma's
personal bodyguard, a sign that he no longer trusts Ukrainian forces.

The second task entrusted to the Russian Spetsnaz is to remove secret
documents from the presidential headquarters. However, Yushchenko's
supporters have already intercepted some papers that the authorities have
attempted to smuggle from rear entrances of the presidential headquarters.

The two groups of Russian Spetsnaz that flew into Irpin and Vasylkiv
included two personal bodyguard details for Kuchma and the head of the
presidential administration Viktor Medvedchuk. A further detail is
responsible for conveying potentially incriminating documents to Russia.
These three units, each with 20 members, are deployed in Kiev.

The bulk of the remainder of the Spetsnaz are being kept in reserve in
Irpin, outside Kiev, to secure the route for an emergency evacuation of
Kuchma, Medvedchuk and their families should the conflict escalate. In such
an eventuality helicopters would be sent from Irpin with additional Russian
forces.

Predictably, the SBU has stated that there are no foreign Spetsnaz troops
deployed in Ukraine. The Russian Interior Ministry has also denied the
reports. However, evidence of the Spetsnaz presence was provided by a
military officer loyal to Yushchenko, the deputy commander of the air force
brigade stationed at Kiev's airport. He reported that the Russians are
disguised in Ukrainian police uniforms.

The current deployment of Russian special forces on Ukrainian soil has no
legal basis. No agreement between Ukraine and Russia permits the Ukrainian
president to invite foreign troops into the country without parliament's
approval.

In fact, the intervention reveals the degree to which the Kremlin has become
inextricably involved in the Ukrainian presidential elections. Russian
'political technologists' and an alleged $300 million in financial subsidies
have played key roles in Yanukovych's campaign. Ukrainians living in Russia
were also transported home in order to vote.

Putin himself made two highly publicised visits to Ukraine to endorse
Yanukovych on the eves of rounds one and two of the election. The Russian
president was quick to congratulate Yanukovych on his 'victory' two days
before the Central Election Commission announced the official results -
which have since been overturned by Ukraine's Supreme Court.

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