By Oksana Bashuk Hepburn

Two days before the election, Russia’s Ambassador to Ukraine Victor Chornomyrdyn stated that energy prices to Ukraine this winter will depend on who wins the election. Two days after the Orange forces won, Russia’s Gasprom declared that Ukraine has a 1.3 billion dollar energy debt. Former Prime Minister Yanukhovych and the Minister of Energy, the incompetent Yurij Boyko—both from the losing Party of Regions—headed for Moscow while the President of Ukraine, Victor Yushchenko muddied the political waters by calling for a united government comprising the top three parties, a ploy that prevented the Orange forces from forming the government following the March 2006 parliamentary elections. Things looked like the political shenanigans following that election might be in the works again. Not any longer. On October 16, the President called on the Orange forces to form a government. Bravo.

So who are the winners and losers of the September 30 elections?

Despite attaining the highest number of votes, the biggest loser is the ruling Party of Regions: it failed to hold power. Only 34 % of Ukrainian voters backed it. The other big loser is Olezander Moroz. His Socialists failed to pass the 3% barrier required to sit in parliament. No surprise here. After the March 2006 elections Moroz abandoned the Orange forces to join Yanukhovych. Now, he is being punished. One attractive Kyiv voter summed up the prevailing attitude of voters: “Anyone, but Moroz.”

The under-performance of the two key pro-Russia parties prevents them from taking power in parliament. Bad news for them, and for Russia’s President Vladymyr Putin. His designs to control Ukraine as part of a re-emerging new Russian empire are well known. In secret discussions with Mr. Yanukhovych, just weeks before the election, he promises that he will continue as Prime Minister regardless of the will of the people. Then, came the Ambassador’s threats, and the pilgrimage of the sitting duck ministers to Moscow. What will be his moves to protect Russia’s interests in light of the Orange victory?

Undeniably the big winner is BYuT, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Block, pulling in over 30% of the votes. Her political staying power and momentum are impressive. Twice dismissed by President Victor Yuschenko as the Prime Minister, she has put personal animosities aside to cobble, again and again, an Orange coalition knowing full well that without a united presence the pro-West forces are doomed. The voters have rewarded her with growing support in the last three elections. Additionally, this time she made inroads beyond the historically pro-West regions of Ukraine winning handsomely in central and parts of south-eastern Ukraine. She deserves to form the new Orange government and become the Prime Minister aagain. The people have given her their support to govern the country her way, but will she be allowed?

There are two other winners. Although small in percentage of votes taken, the Communist party, dismissed by some as yesterday’s phenomenon, has nearly doubled its electoral support to nearly 5%. Its gain is a testimonial to the poverty in the rural areas, the national high unemployment, and the low pensions –all a big issue in Ukraine. Allegedly funded by Ukraine’s richest oligarch Renat Akhmetov who funds the Party of Regions as well, the Communists will join the Regions to form the opposition.

A big winner in the small category, and someone to watch, is the phenix-like resurrection of Volodymyr Lytvyn. Parliament’s Speaker under President Kuchma, he returns after a two year political absence. His Block obtained near 4%. It was expected that he would support the Regions. However, his political ambitions seem long term. Given Ms. Tymoshenko’s standing, he might lead towards the Orange or stay independent—a new phenomenon in Ukraine’s politics—supporting issues with popular appeal, regardless of party sponsorship.

What about Nasha Ukraina-Natsional’na Samo Oborona (NUNS) whose honorary head is President Yushchenko? Are they winners or losers?

Although they placed third after BYuT and the Regions receiving nearly 15% of the vote the NUNS, in particular the Our Ukraine faction, cannot be counted as a winner. The force that brought millions to contest and win the fraudulent presidential elections has lost support because of its inability to deal with Russia’s meddling in Ukraine’s affairs, the capitulation to Russia’s grab of the energy sector, and failure to deal with corruption. It formed a loose union, in time for the elections, with youngYurij Lutsenko, a high-profile freedom fighter and Orange Revolution figure. His NSO gave Our Ukraine a boost. Immediately following the election results he made a public statement supporting Tymoshenko. Nasha Ukrajina took its time. Such decisive acts are the stuff of great political leaders: watch him.

Above all, it was the people who emerged as the greatest winners in the elections. They made their choice switching loyalties in order to reward those who espouse their values rather than those whose net value has grown at the people’s expense. They created the winners and losers and elected for themselves a new government.

All seems as it should be in Ukraine now. Yulia Tymoshenko and the NUNS’s Orange alliance will form the government. The opposition will comprise the Regions and the Communists. Even without Volodymyr Lytvyn the Orange power has the numbers. But, they also had them in March 2006 and lost. True, but with each election the political sophistication of both the electorate and politicians in Ukraine is mounting. It’s politics are still somewhat of a crap shoot and backs needs to be watched. But, for now, the people’s choice has prevailed.

What about Ambassador Chernomyrdyn’s statement? It is odd that he was neither reprimanded by the President Victor Yuschenko nor asked to withdraw his remarks. Nor were there calls for the Ambassador to leave the country as a persona non grata, a likely move in other democratic countries especially given his long standing record of meddling in Ukraine’s politics on behalf of Russia.

Will this happen? Stay tuned.

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is the President of U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm, and a commentator. She is writing a novel dealing with Ukrainian and diaspora politics.